Variance is a key concept in any gambling system and I had a personal reminder of what it really means this weekend! I was home on Saturday so set my poker bot up for a day of sit & go poker tournaments with high hopes of profits. I gave in to the temptation to keep returning to my PC to watch and was disappointed in the unusually poor results - the poker bot wasn't making any errors (it never does!) bit in the first 4 tournaments I took 9th, 8th, 8th and 6th places. These aren' t the type of results I'm used to!
This is of course 'variance' and it was a reminder to me that even with the 'perfect play' of a poker bot you will experience runs of wins and runs of losses. Think of tossing a coin 100 times - statistically you will get 50 heads and 50 tails but in practise you may see runs of 3, 4 or 5 of heads or tails. In poker, you will inevitably have runs of por cards and even and expert poker bot won't be able to do much with them!
I kept the faith and was in the money for the next 5 tournaments (2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd) making it another winning day.
New versions of my bot are appearing quite regularly now so I'm checking back regularly for the latest tweaks to play. It just gets better and better!
http://www.bonusbots.com
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